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Deer Park, WI

Image posted in diary: http://www.bigpumpkins.com/Diary/DiaryViewOne.asp?eid=342542

Here is the graph for historical top pumpkin and top ten pumpkins from 2005-2023. Despite setting a new world record (congrats Travis), the 2023 data for both top pumpkin and top ten giants remain below the 18 year trendline that has been established. While the diagonal lines through both data sets are highly representative of the future trajectory for the hobby (as indicated by the R-squared values >0.9), the line/curve is showing some signs of "flattening". For math nerds, the slope of this linear equation has been on a year-over-year decline since its high water mark in 2016, at a rate of almost -3%/year, where M= 94, 89, 88, 85, 83, 82, 79, 77 for each year since 2016-2023. This declining slope continues to push out the highly anticipated 3000lb achievement. One can use this linear equation to calculate predicted top weight values for each year going forward. If future weights ride this trendline, data suggest the following top weights by year: 2024= 2846lbs, 2025=2923lbs, 2026=3000lbs.

10/29/2023 8:00:30 AM

Torrance, Ca.

Always love your posts!

10/29/2023 1:31:14 PM

Bethlehem CT

Fascinating stuff Joze, thanks for doing the chart. I just posted a message on the watermelon forum page asking what others thoughts might be on what is going on with the giant watermelons and the (seeming) stagnation in weights. I would love to hear any ideas that Joze and others may have regarding this topic.

10/29/2023 3:36:58 PM

Australia eastcoastcitrus@hotmail.com

Agree with you john the watermelon record has been there for a long time

10/29/2023 4:04:06 PM

Australia eastcoastcitrus@hotmail.com

And great post Joe as always

10/29/2023 4:05:49 PM

Syracuse, NY

Lol - I was still on that WM page in my mind;
Apparently, this has been what's going on...
for a long time...
Sometimes, the trend is not your friend.
I think M = MY pumpkin weights, lol.
Actually, they were better this year...eg

10/29/2023 7:50:35 PM

Brooktondale, New York

I enjoy the scientific approach, thank you for sharing. I am interested to see what happens over the next couple of years. Thank you for your continued contributions.

10/29/2023 9:19:52 PM

Stanwood, Washington

Here is a less technical analysis. 2023 vs 2022.

over 2500# - 3 vs. 4
over 2400# - 7 vs. 10
over 2300# - 11 vs. 16
over 2200# - 21 vs. 24
over 2100# - 38 vs. 36
over 2000# - 60 vs. 50
over 1800# - 127 vs. 91
over 1600# - 215 vs. 173

Might be flattening off a bit at the top but the middle of the pack is getting better. These are the growers and genetics that will keep pushing the weights forward.

10/30/2023 6:27:30 PM

Deer Park, WI

Appreciate the feedback, y'all. I've grabbed the top weights dating back to 1993, per Jack's stats. Will post diary link of image when it loads. The slope of this line is m=68, with an R-squared of 0.971. The literal translation of this algebraic mumbo jumbo is that the top weight fruit is predicted to increase by 68lbs each year, with nearly perfect predictability, based on the 30 year historical trend of top weight increases. I find this stunning. I don't know where else in nature one can find such incredible increase in top yield with such a rule-breaking linear fit.

Watermelons are indeed a mystery. Off the cuff, my suspicion is that lack of grower number is a primary driver of stagnation. Just dont have the same momentum giant pumpkins do because not as many gardeners are rolling the dice. If one looks at the last name of top weight pumpkins, aside from a few consistently good growers, there's a lot of turnover at the top. Top ten as well.

10/31/2023 8:25:33 AM

Deer Park, WI

Second diary entry of 1993-2023 top pumpkin data:

http://www.bigpumpkins.com/Diary/DiaryViewOne.asp?eid=342558

10/31/2023 9:28:35 AM

Torrance, Ca.

I wonder how much difference there would be if people weren't using greenhouses?

I grow in a greenhouse because of my colder climate being on the beach. Without it I just couldn't get things warm enough to grow anything big.

I still think we're closer than we think from 3000. Maybe even next year.....:) The co2 has really pushed the numbers in those middle growers and guys like the Patons! If I had more time and a little more money to throw at my hobby,,, I'd be using it myself!!!!.

10/31/2023 10:48:18 AM

Syracuse, NY

So.Cal. - Just exhale into a tube at all times connected to the GH...I know IIIII could keep one full of hot air!
I'm pretty sure that extreme sealing of any enclosure would reduce costs of any gas(es) introduced - well, except through the soil, whereby I wonder about the worms' situation;
Little in, little out, or not at all either weigh! CO2eg

11/1/2023 2:12:19 AM

Bethlehem CT

When I started growing in 06-07 the 1000 pound club was a big deal. We are almost at the point where 2000 pound club would be equivalent to the 1000 pound club. Maybe we are there already. WHo knows? maybe there are more growers today who have passed 2000 than there were growers who had passed 1000 back in 07.

11/1/2023 8:19:21 AM

Stanwood, Washington

There were 262 1000 pound Pumpkins grown in in 2007 There were 60 2000 pounders this year.

11/1/2023 12:21:49 PM

Cheshire Ma USA

There was a few giants in the Northeast this year, but on a whole is was a very tough season weather wise with many top growers getting low or no weight at all.

11/1/2023 1:13:30 PM